EUR/USD: Bullish: Diminished odds for a break above 1.1000.

We have been bullish EUR since last Wednesday (26 Apr) but the subsequent price action has been ‘uninspiring’. The mostly sideways trade has resulted in a rapid loss in momentum and time is not on the side of EUR bulls. To put it another way, the odds for a break above 1.1000 have diminished and EUR has to move above 1.1000 sometimes this week or the risk of a drop below the current stop-loss at 1.0830 would continue to increase

GBP/USD: Bullish: Diminished odds for further GBP strength.

The 1.2950 target that was first highlighted about 2 weeks ago was exceeded as GBP hit a high of 1.2965 on Friday. Despite closing on a strong note on Friday, GBP staged a sharp pull-back yesterday and while the outlook is still deemed as bullish, the odds for further extension to 1.3000 are not high. That said, only a break below 1.2850 would indicate that a temporary top is in place.

AUD/USD: Shift from bearish to neutral: Rebound to extend to 0.7600.

The rapid turnaround in AUD yesterday was unexpected. The rebound from the 0.7440 low last week is accompanied by rather strong momentum and there is room for the rebound to extend further to 0.7600. This is a strong resistance and a clear break of this level would indicate the start of a sustained up-move in AUD. All in, this pair is expected stay underpinned in the coming days with 0.7450 acting as a very strong support.

NZD/USD: Shift from bearish to neutral: Rebound has scope to extend to 0.6965.

After dropping sharply for the most of last week, the sudden and sharp reversal in NZD yesterday was unexpected. A short-term low is likely in place at 0.6847 and while it is too early to adopt a bullish stance, the current strong rebound appears to have room to extend to 0.6965 (key resistance is closer to 0.7010). Only a move back below 0.6850/55 would indicate that the immediate upward pressure has eased.

USD/JPY: Bullish: Target 112.20.

The bullish target that was first indicated last Thursday (26 Apr) appears to be within reach. That said, upward momentum is not as strong as preferred and USD has to break clearly above this level in order to improve the odds for further extension to 112.90.

Source: United Overseas Bank Global Economics & Markets Research

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