EUR/USD: Bullish: Diminished odds for a break above 1.1000.

EUR traded in a narrow range of less than 50 pips yesterday (between 1.0886 and 1.0933). While we continue to hold a bullish view, we are aware of the rapidly waning upward momentum. As indicated yesterday, EUR has to break above 1.1000 sometimes this week or the risk of a short-term top would increase further.

GBP/USD: Bullish: Diminished odds for further GBP strength.

GBP dipped to a low of 1.2865 yesterday, holding above the stop-loss for our bullish view at 1.2850. While the quick bounce from the low is encouraging for our bullish stance, upward momentum is not that strong and the odds for a clear break above 1.3000 are not high. That said, the bullish phase that started 2 weeks ago is considered intact until 1.2850 is taken out. In the event of a break above 1.3000, the next level to focus on is at 1.3060.

AUD/USD: Neutral: Rebound to extend to 0.7600.

We shifted from a bearish to neutral stance yesterday and there is no change to the view. AUD has likely made a short-term low at 0.7440 last week and the rebound from the low has scope to extend towards the strong 0.7600 resistance. Only a move back below 0.7480 would indicate that the current positive undertone has eased.

NZD/USD: Neutral: Odds for further extension to 0.7010 are not high.

We indicated yesterday that “while it is too early to adopt a bullish stance, the current strong rebound appears to have room to extend to 0.6965”. This level was exceeded earlier this morning as NZD got a boost from a better than expected unemployment data (high of 0.6969 at time of writing). While upward momentum has improved, the odds for further extension to the key resistance at 0.7010 are not high. That said, the current positive undertone for NZD is viewed as intact until 0.6880 is taken out.

USD/JPY: Bullish: Target 112.90 next.

The bullish target that was first indicated last Thursday was exceeded as USD hit a high of 112.30 yesterday. While upward momentum is not as strong as preferred but there is scope for USD to extend towards the next target at 112.90.

Source: United Overseas Bank Global Economics & Markets Research

Leave a Comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *