EUR/USD: Neutral: Bullish again if NY closing above 1.1020/25.
The rebound from last Friday’s 1.0838 low has been more resilient than expected. The rather strong resistances at 1.0950 and 1.0980 were taken out without much difficulty and now EUR is facing the 1.1022 high seen last Monday (08 May). A NY closing above this level would indicate that EUR has moved into a bullish phase again with an immediate target of 1.1100. This scenario would not be surprising as long as EUR can hold above 1.0920 within these 1 to 2 days.
GBP/USD: Neutral: In a 1.2830/1.3000 range.
There Is not much to add as GBP traded in a relatively narrow range of 1.2881/1.2940 yesterday. We continue to hold a neutral stance and expect GBP to trade in a 1.2830/1.3000 consolidation range.
AUD/USD: Neutral: Rebound has room to extend to 0.7480/85.
We shifted from a bearish to neutral stance on AUD yesterday and there is no change to the view. The overnight high of 0.7446 was just above the expected 0.7330/0.7445 consolidation range. That said, upward momentum has improved considerably with the positive daily closing and from here, the current rebound has room to extend higher towards the key 0.7480/85 resistance. A clear break above this level would indicate that AUD has moved into a bullish phase. The odds for a shift to a bullish phase are not high now but would continue to improve as long as AUD can hold above 0.7370 in the next several days.
NZD/USD: Shift from bearish to neutral: In a 0.6850/0.6950 range.
The break of 0.6890 indicates that the recent bearish phase has ended. NZD is likely in a 0.6850/0.6950 consolidation range even though the immediate bias is for this pair to probe higher towards the top of the expected range.
USD/JPY: Neutral: In 112.50/114.20 range.
We shifted to a neutral stance on USD yesterday and there is no change to the view. The current movement is viewed as part of a consolidation phase and USD is expected to trade sideways between 112.50 and 114.20 for now.