EUR/USD: Neutral: Bullish again if NY closing above 1.1300.

EUR closed at 1.1280 in NY last Friday, below the key level of 1.1300. We have held the same view that only a NY closing above 1.1300 would indicate that this pair has moved into a bullish phase again. This scenario still seems likely as long as the key support at 1.1210 is

GBP/USD: Neutral: In a 1.2800/1.3010 range.

GBP closed largely unchanged last Friday and there is no change to our current neutral stance. The current movement is viewed as the early stages of a consolidation phase and this pair is expected to trade between 1.2800 and 1.3010 for now.

AUD/USD: Bearish: Diminished odds for AUD weakness.

The shift to a bearish stance last Friday  appears to be ill-timed as AUD rebounded strongly and the stop-loss at 0.7455 seems to be under threat. A move above 0.7455 would indicate that AUD is caught in a broad 0.7380/0.7490 range. In order to reassert its bearishness, AUD has to move and stay below 0.7390 within these 1 to 2 days but the odds for such a move are rather low.

NZD/USD: Bullish: Next bullish leg has started for 0.7170 followed by 0.7200.

While we assigned a low probability for further NZD strength, this pair managed to break above the strong 0.7130 resistance last Friday. The price action suggests that the next bullish leg has started even though we are still wary of the overbought conditions. That said, extension to 0.7170, 0.7200 would not be surprising. Only a break of 0.7075 would indicate that the bullish phase that started on 23 May (spot at 0.7000) has ended.

USD/JPY: Neutral: Bearish if NY closing below 110.00.

While the sharp decline in USD has shifted the immediate pressure to the downside, the internal price action is not convincing and we prefer to wait for a NY closing below 110.00 before shifting to a bearish stance. The prospect for such a move seems quite higher and would continue to improve as long as the short-term key resistance at 111.25 is intact.

Source: United Overseas Bank Global Economics & Markets Research

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