EUR/USD: Bullish (since 28 Jun 17, 1.1335): Above 1.1475 would shift focus to the 2016 peak of 1.1615.

There is not much to add to the update from last Friday (reproduced below). While we shifted to a bullish EUR stance on Wednesday, the rapid pace of advance despite overbought conditions comes as a surprise. The price action is showing the characteristics of a ‘trending phase’ and from here, a break above the weekly trend-line resistance at 1.1475 could lead to further rapid rise towards the 2016 high of 1.1615. The suggested buy level at 1.1290/95 was met on Tuesday and those who are long should raise the stop-loss to 1.1300, just above the entry level. On a shorter-term note, 1.1375 is already a strong support.

GBP/USD: Bullish (since 29 Jun 17, 1.2935): Over-extended but room for extension to 1.3045/50.

There is no change to the current bullish outlook for GBP. While the recent rally is overbought, there is a room for extension to 1.3045/50. A break above this level would shift the focus to towards 1.3160. On the downside, only a move below 1.2925 would indicate that the bullish phase has ended.

AUD/USD: Bullish (since 30 Jun 17, 0.7690): Immediate target of 0.7750 followed by 0.7780.

We just turned bullish AUD last Friday and there is no change to the view. The immediate target is at 0.7750, above this level the focus shifts to 0.7780. Stop-loss remains unchanged at 0.7630. On a shorter-term note, 0.7720 is a rather strong resistance and this level may cap AUD strength in the next 1 to 2 days.

NZD/USD: Neutral (since 16 Jun 17, 0.7205): Bullish if NY closing is above 0.7350.

The undertone for NZD continues to improve and from here, a NY closing above 0.7350 would suggest that this pair has moved back into a bullish phase. This scenario would not be surprising as long as the key support at 0.7290 is not taken out in the next few days.

USD/JPY: Bullish (since 20 Jun 17, 111.65): Took profit for half of long position at 112.75. No change in view, see update from last Friday below. 

We suggested exiting half of long positions at 112.75 two days ago as we held the view that the major 112.80 resistance may not yield so easily. USD surged to a high of 112.92 yesterday but the rally was quickly reversed. Despite the sharp pull-back from the high, the bullish phase that started last Tuesday is still intact. That said, upward momentum has clearly been dented but only a move back below 111.30 would indicate that the bullish phase has ended. The next target is at 113.15 even though the 112.92 top is expected to offer solid resistance in the next few days.

Source: United Overseas Bank Global Economics & Markets Research

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