EUR/USD: Neutral: In a 1.0555/1.0700 range.

The sharp and rapid pull-back in EUR last Thursday was unexpected. We previously held the view that the rebound from last week’s 1.0568 low has scope to extend to 1.0750 but this seems unlikely now. This pair has likely moved into a consolidation phase and is expected to trade between 1.0555 and 1.0700 for now.

GBP/USD: Neutral: Anticipating a break above 1.2615.

Despite waning upward momentum, the current rebound from the 1.2365 low still appears to have scope to move above 1.2615. Only a break back below 1.2460 would indicate that the upside pressure has eased (and the start of a consolidation phase)

AUD/USD: Neutral: Short-term low in place, rebound to extend to 0.7630.

We continue to hold the view that last Wednesday’s 0.7475 low is a short-term base and we expect the rebound to extend higher to 0.7630. Momentum indicators are constructive and the odds for such a move appear to be quite high. We will hold the same view unless there is a break back below 0.7505 (0.7530 is already a strong shorter-term support).

NZD/USD: Neutral: Short-term low in place, rebound to extend to 0.7050.

Last week’s 0.7010 is viewed as a short-term low and the rebound from the low appears incomplete. We expected the rebound to extend to 0.7050 but upward momentum is more robust than expected and a move above this level would not be surprising (the next resistance is at the mid-March peak of 0.7090). Support is at 0.6980 but only a break below 0.6950 would indicate that the immediate upward pressure has eased.

USD/JPY: Bearish: Focus is on 108.00 now followed by 107.45/50.

The bearish phase that started last Wednesday is clearly intact as the immediate target of 108.60 was easily exceeded. The focus is on 108.00 now followed by 107.45/50.

Source: United Overseas Bank Global Economics & Markets Research

Leave a Comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *