EUR/USD: Bullish (since 28 Jun 17, 1.1335): Over-extended but scope for further up-move to 1.1435. There is not much to add to the update from yesterday (reproduced below).

The abrupt and strong rally appears to be running ahead of itself but there is scope for further up-move towards 1.1435. This solid resistance sits just below the weekly trend-line as well as being the high in June 2016. Above this level, there is hardly any significant resistance until the 2016 high of 1.1614. In order to maintain the current impulsive momentum, any pull-back should not move back below 1.1230.

GBP/USD: Shift from neutral to bullish: Over-extended but room for extension to 1.3045/50.

GBP sliced through 1.2920 with ease and surged to hit an overnight high of 1.2971. The neutral outlook has shifted to bullish and the target from here is for a move towards the year-to-date high near 1.3045/50.

AUD/USD: Neutral (since 21 Jun 17, 0.7580): Immediate upward pressure towards 0.7680.

AUD edged above the top-end of our expected 0.7525/0.7630 yesterday and is holding just above this level at the time of writing. The breach of this strong resistance coupled with the solid NY closing has resulted in a positive undertone but we are not ready to shift to a bullish stance just yet. That said, the immediate pressure is clearly on the upside (no reason to sell) and from here, a move to 0.7680 would not be surprising. The pace and extent of any break above 0.7680 would determine whether AUD has moved into a bullish phase. In the meanwhile, this pair is expected to stay underpinned in the coming days as long as the key short-term support at 0.7575 is intact.

NZD/USD: Neutral (since 16 Jun 17, 0.7205): In a higher range of 0.7230/0.7350.

NZD recovered most of its steep loss on Tuesday to end the day just above 0.7300 (NY close of 0.7306). The neutral phase that started about 2 weeks ago is still in place and we continue to expect this pair to trade sideways within a broad 0.7230/0.7350 range for now.

USD/JPY Bullish (since 20 Jun 17, 111.65): To exit half of long position at 112.75. No change in view, see update from yesterday below.

We have been bullish USD since last Tuesday, 20 Jun (spot at 111.65). The major 112.10 resistance was finally breached as USD surged to a high of 112.46 yesterday. The outlook is still bullish but those who are long should look to exit half their position at 112.75, just below the major 112.80 resistance. A break above this level is not ruled out but this is a rather strong level and may not yield so easily (next resistance is at 113.15).

Source: United Overseas Bank Global Economics & Markets Research

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