EUR/USD: Bullish (since 28 Jun 17, 1.1335): Above 1.1475 would shift focus to the 2016 peak of 1.1615.

While we shifted to a bullish EUR stance on Wednesday, the rapid pace of advance despite overbought conditions comes as a surprise. The price action is showing the characteristics of a ‘trending phase’ and from here, a break above the weekly trend-line resistance at 1.1475 could lead to further rapid rise towards the 2016 high of 1.1615.

GBP/USD: Bullish (since 29 Jun 17, 1.2935): Over-extended but room for extension to 1.3045/50.

We just turned bullish GBP yesterday and there is no change to the view. The pace of advance is more rapid than expected and the target at 1.3045/50 appears to be within reach. Above this level, the focus would shift to 1.3160. The suggested buy level at 1.2905/10 was not reached. We are not inclined to ‘chase’ the rally at current level. That said, confirmation of a top is only upon a move back below 1.2925 (adjusted higher from 1.2840).

AUD/USD: Shift from neutral to Bullish  Immediate target of 0.7750 followed by 0.7780.

The ease and pace of which 0.7680 is taken out coupled with the strong closing in NY indicated that AUD has moved into a bullish phase. The immediate target is at 0.7750 (year-to-date high) followed by 0.7780.

NZD/USD: Neutral (since 16 Jun 17, 0.7205): In a higher range of 0.7230/0.7350.

While the undertone for NZD is improving, only a clear break above the major 0.7350 resistance would indicate that this pair has moved back into a bullish phase again. The odds for such a move are not very high at this stage but would continue to improve as long as NZD can hold above 0.7270 in the next few days.

USD/JPY: Bullish (since 20 Jun 17, 111.65): Took profit for half of long position at 112.75.

We suggested exiting half of long positions at 112.75 two days ago as we held the view that the major 112.80 resistance may not yield so easily. USD surged to a high of 112.92 yesterday but the rally was quickly reversed. Despite the sharp pull-back from the high, the bullish phase that started last Tuesday  is still intact. That said, upward momentum has clearly been dented but only a move back below 111.30 would indicate that the bullish phase has ended. The next target is at 113.15 even though the 112.92 top is expected to offer solid resistance in the next few days.

Source: United Overseas Bank Global Economics & Markets Research

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